Heads and Tails

The easiest way of understanding how betting on positive odds edges makes assured long-term profits is by using a heads and tails example

Fair Odds

Heads
Probability 50%
Odds 2
Heads
Bet Result P&L
Spin 1 £100 Win £100
Spin 2 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 3 £100 Win £100
Spin 4 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 5 £100 Win £100
Spin 6 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 7 £100 Win £100
Spin 8 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 9 £100 Win £100
Spin 10 £100 Loose -£100
Return £0
Tails
Probability 50%
Odds 2
Tails
Bet Result P&L
Spin 1 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 2 £100 Win £100
Spin 3 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 4 £100 Win £100
Spin 5 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 6 £100 Win £100
Spin 7 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 8 £100 Win £100
Spin 9 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 10 £100 Win £100
Return £0

Positive odds Edge Heads

Heads
Probability 45.5%
Odds 2.2
Heads
Bet Result P&L
Spin 1 £100 Win £120
Spin 2 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 3 £100 Win £120
Spin 4 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 5 £100 Win £120
Spin 6 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 7 £100 Win £120
Spin 8 £100 Loose -£100
Spin 9 £100 Win £120
Spin 10 £100 Loose -£100
Return £100.00
Tails
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.80
Tails
Bet Result P&L
Spin 1 £100 Lose -£100
Spin 2 £100 Win £80
Spin 3 £100 Lose -£100
Spin 4 £100 Win £80
Spin 5 £100 Lose -£100
Spin 6 £100 Win £80
Spin 7 £100 Lose -£100
Spin 8 £100 Win £80
Spin 9 £100 Lose -£100
Spin 10 £100 Win £80
Return -£100

The example does not include variance in the hit rate

"Betting on odds of 2.2 "Heads" which has a positive odds edge of +4.5% will consistently make profits. Betting on odds of 1.8 "Tails" which has a negative odds edge of -5.6% will consistently make losses